Making Sense of Complexity
“We need to learn how to make sense of the world so that we can act in it.”
- Dave Snowden
Several years ago, while reading Jennifer Garvey Berger’s Simple Habits for Complex Times, I was introduced to the distinction between complex and complicated. This distinction helped me to understand why we often get frustrated by the challenges we face, feel stuck, and act in ways that don’t seem to move us forward. What was most liberating for me was realizing that, when something is genuinely complex, not having the answer is not the result of not being smart enough or skilled enough. It’s more often that we have not taken the time to diagnose the nature of the challenge we’re facing and are treating it as if it is complicated, rather than complex.
Simply, put, complex challenges or decisions are the ones we haven’t faced before—and no amount of expertise can lead us to the right answer or plan. Only when something is complicated does that approach work—we have been here before—or at least someone has. Until I was exposed to this distinction, I had wrongly assumed that, when I couldn’t figure something out, it was a failing on my part. If only we could gather the right pieces of knowledge or bring the right experts into the room, we could apply the tools we already have in our toolkits and figure it out. It wasn’t until I learned about complexity that I realized that we need to expand our toolkit.
The thing is—navigating our work and our lives during a period of rapid and unprecedented change is inherently complex. This is true no matter what you do and even more true for leaders. And, it’s especially true when what we do involves people, who are largely unpredictable.
What I didn’t know when I was introduced to this distinction was just how much more there was to learn about complexity. Eventually, I was introduced to the Cynefin (K-ne-vin) framework (thanks to Jennifer Garvey Berger and my teach Doug Silsbee.) Cynefin is a Welsh word meaning habitat and refers to a framework that was built by and continues to evolve through the work of Dave Snowden and the Cynefin Co. It is a fluid and dynamic framework whose job is to support us in becoming better “sense-makers,” by observing and distinguishing the “habitats” or systems that we operate in. As a result of that new way of observing, new ways of acting—and new results—become available.
Overview of the Cynefin Framework
Complex and complicated, along with clear and chaotic, form a map that takes us from the most to the least predictable—from ordered to complex to chaotic systems. The fifth domain is confusion—which is the result of not having clarity about which domains apply. Confusion can be useful (we don’t yet know) or problematic (we act without attempting to know.)
As we move from the most to the least predictable domains, the relationship between cause and effect shifts and what is known and knowable changes. Different practices, tool, and ways of leading are relevant and effective in different domains
The Clear Domain
Something lives in the clear domain if, when we follow the same steps consistently, we get the same outcome. This is the most ordered and predictable space on our map. If we can write and follow a reliable checklist, it’s likely clear. The relationship between cause and effect is obvious and replicable. In this domain we can establish and maintain best practices. Many administrative procedures, especially standard ones, belong in the clear domain. The language we use in this domain is: Sense, Categorize, Respond.
As we grow into more senior roles, fewer and fewer of the things we are responsible for will be in the clear domain. There’s a good chance that most things that are “clear” are things we can and should delegate. At the same time, even inside of complex challenges, like the challenge of navigating through COVID, there are elements that are clear. Cleaning protocols, for example, often include a checklist that represents a best practice that should be followed consistently by everyone.
The Complicated Domain
Building a rocket ship is complicated. Expertise, research, and analysis are required; there can be many parts and pieces. Still, cause and effect can be identified—even if it takes effort to get there. We are still operating in an ordered system. Plans can be formulated; good practices are identifiable. Financial processes and computer systems are examples of things that are generally complicated. In the COVID context, establishing guidelines for operating safely were mostly complicated—especially as we learned more about the disease and how it spread. The language we use in this domain is: Sense, Analyze, Respond.
Complicated is the domain that most of us were trained to be best in. Most of the people I work with pride themselves on being great problem-solvers—it’s core to their identity. And, when a problem is complicated it’s exactly what we need. Accepting that many of the situations we deal with need more than our problem-solving skills, but a whole new way of operating can be hard to both recognize and accept. Which takes us to the third domain.
The Complex Domain
With complexity we move into unpredictability. Solutions are unknowable in advance. Cause and effect can be identified only in hindsight. Parenting is one of my favorite examples of complexity. Children are unpredictable, especially as they grow older, and we are not in control of the outcomes. To the degree we can let go of our pre-conceptions of who our children “should” become, the better off we all are.
In complexity we establish a direction, rather than destination. Using the parenting metaphor again: Wanting our kids to be good, educated people is a direction. That’s quite different from wanting them to become Harvard graduates—that’s a destination. In complexity directions are important, and destinations can get us into trouble. The recent college entrance scandal is a stark example of treating parenting as if it is complicated, rather than complex. Parents who were committed to a specific outcome and believed they could control the path to get there, ended up in a world of pain and even prison.
When trying to determine if something is complex or complicated there are a couple of useful rules of thumb:
If it involves people and relationships, it’s likely to be complex. People are generally not predictable.
We can ask ourselves the question: “have we been here before?” If we haven’t and if there’s no one we can learn from who has, we are most likely in the domain of complexity.
Given these criteria it becomes apparent that much of the work of leadership resides in the complex domain. Culture is a function of people and thus complex. As we grow and evolve as leaders, more and more of the things that we are accountable for are going to involve at least some complexity.
Addressing employment challenges in a post-COVID context, with a unique labor market and unique conditions, creates complexity. We have not been here before and we are dealing with unique social and economic conditions. I watch clients looking for “the” answer and having to remind themselves, over and over again, that there is no one answer out there.
The Challenge of Complexity
Human beings tend to be more comfortable in the complicated than the complex domains. We often find ourselves looking back on situations that were complex and thinking that we (or they) should have known what to do. When we learn to accept complexity, we can let go of the expectation that we should have had the answer and perhaps we can be kinder to ourselves and others.
When we treat a complex challenge as if it is a complicated problem, we see our inability to “solve” the problem as being about ourselves and our limitations. The strategies we employ don’t work. Because we have been exceptionally well-trained as problem-solvers, we don’t know that there is a different way to observe. Recognizing whether the situation we are dealing with is complex or complicated—and responding in ways that fit the nature of the situation—produces dramatically different actions and results.
Once we name the domain as complex, we can move from problem-solving and planning to navigating. Acting in the complex domain, the language we use is Probe, Sense, Respond. We create safe-to-fail or safe-to-learn experiments or probes—small, lower risk and frequent experiments that offer us immediate and useful feedback In complexity practices are emergent or exaptive—meaning that they come from our experiments and our probes and often involve using the same ingredients in new ways to see if we can create new outcomes.
The Chaotic Domain
In the least predictable domain, chaos, the relationship between cause and effect may be unknowable—even in hindsight. While none of the domains of Cynefin are inherently good or bad, chaos is the domain that we mostly want to avoid and is the most temporary. It is often the outcome of natural or man-made disasters.
In response to chaos we need to act quickly, we must stabilize the system. The language we use in the chaotic domain is Act, Sense, Respond. The essential question we need to ask ourselves is what actions will stabilize the situation and enable us to move back towards the other domains.
We invent novel practices—because we must. Some of our attempts will fail—and some of those failures will not be safe. In the process, we will identify new practices that we can draw on even after we’ve stabilized and are no longer in the domain of chaos. In that way, chaos can be a time of creativity.
When COVID first hit, leaders at all levels made decisions quickly, for the moment, within the context of what often felt like free fall. As such, we saw the use of “blunt instruments” to create some semblance of stability. Lock things down, create stringent rules, close borders, etc. It was a necessary first response. The deeper reflection, the collaboration, the long view, the value of slowing down that are useful ways of operating in complexity were temporarily sidelined by the need to quickly assess, reorganize, and repurpose.
As we learned more and recognized where the risks were greater, these approaches were modified and adjusted—we shifted back into the domains of complex and complicated, and even clear. Some of those initial reactions turned out to have been mistakes while others contributed to new ways of thinking about the future.
The Cliff
Chaos can also result from wrongly diagnosing something as clear or complicated when it’s complex. We may oversimplify or perhaps have become complacent and what was once clear, no longer is. In many of the depictions of the Cynefin framework you’ll see that between clear and chaos is a cliff. This cliff is a visual description of the risk of treating the complicated or complex as clear.
We worked with a tech client who told us about a project they had sold to a client. They priced the project and planned for it on the assumption that it was going to be clear. They had assumed their best practices for this kind of project would work just fine. They hadn’t factored in the challenge of working with different countries, each with different standards, tax requirements, and ways of doing business. They quickly fell off the cliff. The project was so chaotic that it nearly resulted in the business going bankrupt.
Keys for Navigating Complexity
Navigating complexity requires intentionality and awareness, a new way of observing—and even a new way of being. Otherwise, we risk responding in ways that will be at best ineffective and at worst disastrous. Being intentional about naming the domains we are in and responding with the appropriate tools or strategies is essential for producing desirable and productive outcomes. The fifth domain, confusion, occurs when we don’t diagnose at all and act without intentionality. Following are several keys for navigating complexity, along with practices you can begin to adopt.
1. Name the Domain(s)
Often when introduced to the Cynefin model, leaders realize that the default mode for the organization is to assume that everything is clear or complicated. The result can be chaos. Considering the nature of the challenge—and recognizing where it is complex—creates the possibility of making different choices and allowing different ways of operating to emerge.
The Practice: Name the domain before choosing how to respond.
2. Adopt an Attitude of Experimentation
Key to working with complexity is getting comfortable with experimentation. Designing and implementing and learning from safe-to-fail experiments lies at the heart of working with complexity. As you consider the complex challenges you’re dealing with, ask yourself “What’s the next thing I could try?” Remember that there is no one answer to a complex challenge and that you are navigating your way through it. If you can come up with a few small things, try them all.
The Practice: Use the following questions to design safe-to-fail experiments:
What is the Challenge?
What is your Hypothesis?
What will you do? (What methods are appropriate for the context?)
What could be signs of Success?
What are possible Unintended Consequence?
Additional Considerations for Safe-to-Fail Experiments
“Safe-to-fail” depends on your context. Think small, local, and recoverable.
Conduct multiple experiments (even contradictory ones) at the same time.
If some don’t fail, you’re playing it too safe.
Think “What might happen if?”
Ask: “What hasn’t worked in the past but might work now?”
How do we learn even if it fails?
3. Slow Down
One way to operate in complexity is to slow down, pay closer attention, take the time to ask questions, listen more broadly to all levels of the system and observe carefully. When we slow down, it’s easier to identify what needs to emerge. When we slow down, we can also be better attuned to the little things in the environment that are potentially important—even vital—sources of information. If we move too quickly and do not pay close attention, we are inevitably going to miss those small, but important things in the environment that can help us navigate complexity better.
When things are moving quickly and we are overwhelmed by the sheer quantity of work on our plates, slowing down can seem like an impossibility. Teaching ourselves to notice when we’re revving up and take short pauses can turn this seemingly impossible practice into one that supports us daily. Consider slowing down when you feel the urge to speed up as a safe-to-fail experiment.
The Practice: When you feel the urge to speed up, experiment with doing the opposite and slowing down. Get to know that urge and use it as a “cue” to do something very different.
4. Accept Messy
Embracing complexity requires acknowledging that when things are hard to decipher and solutions seem out of easy reach, they probably are. Rather than attempting to impose order, we can adopt Snowden’s advice: “Learn to live with dissent and with a lot of mess. The higher you get, the more challenges you face, the less you will be able to impose order, so learn to live with its absence as early as possible in your career.”
The Practice: Notice when things feel a little bit messier than you are comfortable with and ask yourself if you can live with the messy just a little bit longer.
5. Don’t Go It Alone
In complexity, expertise in not enough. Top-down decision making won’t work. Multiple perspectives are needed. Per Snowden: “In the complex domain clear lines of control, structured authority and a need to avoid challenge or informal conversations…are contraindicated.” When things get messy, we are oriented to falling back into command and control. While that might, at times, be necessary in true chaos, in complexity, it’s the opposite of what is most often needed.
The Practice: Notice when you’re inclined to go it alone and seek out additional people and perspectives.
6. Build Your Internal Capacity for Complexity
We crave certainty. We are wired to perceive stimuli as needing quick responses. That’s our biology. Perhaps the hardest part of working with complexity, and the barrier to adopting any of the strategies or practices described above, is that we need to build an internal capacity to tolerate ambiguity, uncertainty and not knowing. For most of us that this will require practice and practices that may include new habits or routines. My morning meditation has helped me develop my own, internal, capacity for appreciating, accepting, and even embracing complexity.
One thing I do a lot in my coaching is support my clients in learning use the stimulus (the very thing that we typically perceive as requiring a reactive response) as a cue to pause and breathe. Trying this in minimally stressful and low-stakes situations is a great safe-to-fail experiment.
To go deeper into this aspect of complexity, I strongly recommend Jennifer Garvey Berger and Carolyn Coughin’s 2022 book: Unleashing Your Complexity Genius. I am sure you will hear more about their work in future posts!
Start Now
Consider a challenge you are currently facing. Are you treating it as complex or complicated? Is your assessment accurate? If it contains at least a component that is complex, what might you consider doing differently? Just as important—what’s one experiment that you can begin that will allow you to slow down, to pause, to breathe?
For me, this shift to the language of experimentation has helped me tackle both professional and personal challenges with greater ease and less fear. While I know this is the work of a lifetime, I am getting better at relaxing in the face of complexity, embracing the messiness and even enjoying the ride. I wish the same for you!
